| EPSRC Reference: |
EP/M008363/1 |
| Title: |
Past Earth Network |
| Principal Investigator: |
Voss, Dr J |
| Other Investigators: |
|
| Researcher Co-Investigators: |
|
| Project Partners: |
|
| Department: |
Statistics |
| Organisation: |
University of Leeds |
| Scheme: |
Standard Research |
| Starts: |
26 January 2015 |
Ends: |
30 June 2018 |
Value (£): |
423,965
|
| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Statistics & Appl. Probability |
|
|
| EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications: |
|
| Related Grants: |
|
| Panel History: |
| Panel Date | Panel Name | Outcome |
|
02 Sep 2014
|
Forecasting EC
|
Announced
|
|
|
Summary on Grant Application Form |
Forecasts of climate rely on model projections, but derivation of
sophisticated climate models from first principles is not currently
feasible. Therefore, evaluating climate models with observations is
essential. The development and improvement of global climate models
is currently only based on comparison with and tuning to historical
observations of climate (the instrumental record). Model simulations
of the present climate are well-tuned and are in general agreement
with each other. However, there is no clear relationship between
model performance for present day and model behaviour for projections.
Models show a range of sensitivities when predicting the future
climate response to the emission of greenhouse gases. This indicates
that the evaluation of models using observations of historical climate
is insufficient. It is very difficult to reduce uncertainties on
projections based on the instrumental period only and the use data
from earlier periods is critical.
A wide variety of different climate states are recorded in the
geological record (spanning greenhouse to icehouse scenarios). The
modelling of past climates, in combination with data from the
geological record, provides a unique laboratory to evaluate the
ability of models to forecast global change. While data is available
from numerous intervals in Earth
history, analysis is often constrained by the availability of material
of the correct age and data collection is often very time consuming
and expensive (e.g. for marine sediment cores). For this reasons, it
is important that data on past climate and environments is utilised
optimally and that challenges resulting from sparsity of the data as
well as from temporal and spatial uncertainties are addressed in the
best way possible.
The earth system modelling and proxy reconstruction communities often
have little contact with professional statisticians. Even in
publications, ad-hoc methods are used instead of established
statistical "best practice". If inappropriate statistical methods
are used, inference about models and the earth system will be weakly
supportable or plainly wrong. To avoid these problems and to realise
the opportunity of improved earth system forecasting, sound
statistical methods as advised by statisticians must be used. On the
other hand, use of appropriate statistical methodology is often made
difficult due to sparsity of data or lack of resources, and
statisticians are not always aware of the resulting restrictions on
the applicability of methods. Statisticians need to develop awareness
of the restrictions and requirements caused by the sparsity of
palaeoclimate data and the high complexity or climate models.
The Past Earth Network will develop a shared, multi-disciplinary
vision for addressing the challenges encompassed by the following four
network themes. (1) Quantification of error and uncertainty of data:
The uncertainties inherent in different forms of climate data must be
well-understood. This is particularly challenging for palaeoclimate
data, since uncertainties are often large and varied. (2)
Quantification of uncertainty in complex models: The uncertainties in
the output of the (complex and high-dimensional) models in use must be
well-understood. (3) Methodologies which enable robust model-data
comparison: Appropriate methods for model-data comparison must be
used, taking into account the nature and sparsity of data. (4)
Forecasting and future climate projections: This theme synthesizes the
results from the first three themes in order to assess and ultimately
improve the ability of climate models to forecast climate change.
By addressing these four challenges, results produced by the Past
Earth Network will help to better understand and reduce the
uncertainties in climate forecasts and ultimately will contribute to
the development of better climate forecasts.
|
|
Key Findings |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
|
Potential use in non-academic contexts |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
|
Impacts |
|
| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
|
| Date Materialised |
|
|
|
|
Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
| Project URL: |
|
| Further Information: |
|
| Organisation Website: |
http://www.leeds.ac.uk |