| EPSRC Reference: |
GR/J38079/01 |
| Title: |
ASSESSING RISK WITH MULTIPLE SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE: THE STANDARDISED ARGUMENT REPORT - IED4/1/8029 |
| Principal Investigator: |
Ayton, Professor P |
| Other Investigators: |
|
| Researcher Co-Investigators: |
|
| Project Partners: |
|
| Department: |
Sch of Social Sciences |
| Organisation: |
City, University of London |
| Scheme: |
Standard Research (Pre-FEC) |
| Starts: |
30 June 1994 |
Ends: |
29 August 1997 |
Value (£): |
135,187
|
| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Artificial Intelligence |
Software Engineering |
|
| EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications: |
|
| Related Grants: |
|
| Panel History: |
|
|
Summary on Grant Application Form |
|
The StAR project will develop and test a technology for evaluating and reporting on risk. Specifically we are building a prototype application for risk assessment in the domain of chemical pathogenicity, integrating qualitative and quantitative techniques for reasoning under uncertainty. We aim to develop a standardised language for the expression and communication of risk and the representation of knowledge concerning chemical structures. However, the project is not restricted to the field of chemical pathogenicity - a generic risk assessment shell will be developed.Progress:A mathematical model for reasoning under uncertainty - the logic of Argumentation (LA) is being developed and adapted for the project at Imperial Cancer Research Fund. At City University we are studying human perceptions of risk and the appropriateness of LA for supporting risk assessment. We are determining the most appropriate linguistic terms and graphical formats for coherent communications concerning degrees of risk. Computer modules for reasoning and communicating about chemical structures are being developed by LHASA UK. Logic Programming Associates are providing expertise and practical support in the writing of programs in Prolog (for which they supply a compiler and associated tools) - the language we have chosen for the core of the system. A first prototype system of the application for risk assessment has been built, primarily for use as a model for discussion within the StAR project. A review of the psychological literature on Cognitive biases in judgement under uncertainty is in press. A substantial research literature testifies to the difficulties that people (including experts) have in responding appropriately, or even consistently, in the face of risk. Human judgement can cause us to overreact to some small risks and virtually ignore other large risks. Consequently a paper reviewing the psychological literature on human risk perception has been drafted and will be submitted for publication shortly. A programme of psychological experimentation exploring human response to risk messages formulated with argumentation is under way. An account of this work has been submitted for presentation at the forthcoming Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making conference. These psychological studies have given some first indications that the LA approach to risk assessment is appropriate and provide some findings about human reasoning of risk that require further study.
|
|
Key Findings |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
|
Potential use in non-academic contexts |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
|
Impacts |
|
| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
|
| Date Materialised |
|
|
|
|
Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
|
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
|
| Project URL: |
|
| Further Information: |
|
| Organisation Website: |
http://www.city.ac.uk |