| EPSRC Reference: |
GR/K77617/01 |
| Title: |
NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF BAROCLINIC FLOWS AND ITS IMPLICATIONSFOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORCASTING |
| Principal Investigator: |
Moroz, Dr IM |
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| Department: |
Mathematical Institute |
| Organisation: |
University of Oxford |
| Scheme: |
Standard Research (Pre-FEC) |
| Starts: |
01 October 1995 |
Ends: |
30 September 1998 |
Value (£): |
2,671
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| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Non-linear Systems Mathematics |
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Summary on Grant Application Form |
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Our underlying objective is to understand the growth of uncertainty when predicting nonlinear systems. With this aim we shall reconstruct the state space dynamics of baroclinic flows observed in the thermally driven rotating fluid annulus by two distinct methods: a non-parametric modelling using, for example, radial basis functions and reconstructed model equation of motion using a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. We shall contrast the strengths and weaknesses of both and address problems of initialisation and evaluation of predictions for this nonlinear system. We shall use ensemble forecasting techniques to estimate the utility of the forecast (assuming a perfect model) and previous prediction error to evaluate the state dependent quality of imperfect models. The difficulties involved in predicting annulus flows parallel those encountered in weather and climate prediction, nut in a laboratory system sufficient data may be gathered to resolve them.
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Key Findings |
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Potential use in non-academic contexts |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Impacts |
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| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
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| Date Materialised |
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Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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| Project URL: |
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| Further Information: |
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| Organisation Website: |
http://www.ox.ac.uk |