Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference:	GR/R32529/01
Title:	Using geo-demographic analysis to calculate patronage for rural buses
Principal Investigator:	Potter, Professor S
Other Investigators:
Researcher Co-Investigators:	Professor D Banister Professor M Enoch
Project Partners:
Department:	Energy and Environment Research Unit
Organisation:	Open University
Scheme:	Standard Research (Pre-FEC)
Starts:	01 February 2001	Ends:	31 January 2002	Value (£):	20,323
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:	Transport Ops & Management
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:
Related Grants:
Panel History:
Summary on Grant Application Form
There have been a large number of improvements in recent years in geo-demographic analysis, particularly in regard to retail. These techniques have yet to be applied to transport. This project aims to test the feasilbility of applying geo-demographic analysis techniques to bus services, to establish the likely patronage levels of a new bus service, how new developments along an existing route will affect patronage figures and how changes to an existing service will affect patronage figures. An extensive literature review will be carried out to determine current practice within the bus industry and the key determinants of bus patronage. Statistical tests (ANOVA) of the National Travel Survey will be carried out to determine the geo-demographic profiles of population groups with significantly different attitudes towards public transport. Regression analysis will then be used to determine how bus patronage varies within each group according to bus service quality. Using GIS, these regression models will then be applied to a series of routes to estimate patronage figures. In order to test the validity of the technique, these estimates will be compared with actual patronage for each route and where possible estimates of patronage based on current practice. The results of the project will be presented to practioners at a series of workshops and through a web-site. Practioners will be asked to comment on the usefulness of the technique, problems they see in applying the technique and on the wider applicability of the technique to other public transport services. The wider applicability will also be tested through a SWOT analysis.
Key Findings
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Potential use in non-academic contexts
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