| EPSRC Reference: |
GR/R66944/01 |
| Title: |
Predicting the Probability of Flooding Over Long Reaches (Including Real Time Applications) |
| Principal Investigator: |
Beven, Professor K |
| Other Investigators: |
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| Project Partners: |
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| Department: |
Environmental Science |
| Organisation: |
Lancaster University |
| Scheme: |
Standard Research (Pre-FEC) |
| Starts: |
16 June 2002 |
Ends: |
15 June 2005 |
Value (£): |
142,993
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| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Coastal & Waterway Engineering |
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Summary on Grant Application Form |
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The Environment Agency is dedicated to providing accurate, timely and reliable flood forecasts. Forecasting the evolution of a flood through an urban or rural area with complex roughness elements on the flood plain is a difficult task. This project aims to provide next generation real time forecasting techniques that will allow the estimation of probabilities of inundation taking account of the sources of uncertainties in the modelling process within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework. Important issues in real time forecasting are computational efficiency, and data assimilation in making N-step ahead predictions. Both will be addressed in this project using novel semi-Lagrangian routing algorithms and state-dependent parameter estimation techniques in generating upstream and lateral inflows from rainfall data. The methodology will be demonstrated at sites chosen in collaboration with the Agency.The topics covered by this proposal have been identified as high priority research areas in the recent EA scoping study on Reducing Uncertainty in River Flood Conveyance
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Key Findings |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Potential use in non-academic contexts |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Impacts |
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| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
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| Date Materialised |
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Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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| Project URL: |
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| Further Information: |
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| Organisation Website: |
http://www.lancs.ac.uk |